Are the days of the House of Saud-the royal family that has ruled Saudi Arabia on and off since its inception--numbered? While the House of Saud may retain its power, it is most definitely under siege, both from the West and from two elements within its own borders: anti-Western fundamentalist Muslims and young Saudis who lack the economic opportunities of the previous generation.

But should a change of regime in this desert Kingdom matter to the US? Yes, because if the House of Saud falls, it likely will not be in our direction. The worst-case scenario is that a fundamentalist regime with sympathies for groups such as Al-Qaeda would seize power, using the economic muscle of the Kingdom to bolster anti-US terrorist groups. The US would respond by sending troops into Saudi territory, attacking the birthplace and spiritual home of Islam.

US troops in Baghdad are one thing, but US troops in Mecca could unite the Muslim world against the US, igniting a firestorm that could lead to world war. Such a war is what Osama bin Laden hoped for, a war that he believed-incorrectly-the Muslims could win.

For many in the US, the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has been strained by the Kingdom's ties to terrorist groups, including the 15 Saudi hijackers involved in 9/11. Further, the House of Saud is blamed for the repressive society that exists in the Kingdom. Basic civil rights are lacking, especially for women. The press is not free and most power is concentrated in the royal family.

For the fundamentalists, including Osama bin Laden, the House of Saud oversees a corrupt government that has betrayed Islamic ideals. The royal family has long been friendly to the US, for both business and security reasons, an alliance that troubles the fundamentalists. In addition, many young Saudis, though more progressive in thought and not tied to the fundamentalists, are unhappy with their economic prospects. The best jobs are held by expatriate workers, while the oil money gravy train has been thinned from meeting the needs of a growing population.

The political structure of Saudi Arabia can be traced to the early 19th century, when the fundamentalist cleric Al Wahhab joined forces with the Al Saud family to create a state based on strict Islamic laws. This political marriage has persisted: the royal family runs the Kingdom, but it rarely defies the religious clerics. The clerics have the mosque, where they can put forth their fundamentalist and anti-Western views to the people, often more effectively than the King himself.

But the continuing presence of American troops in the Kingdom has shaken the foundations of the political marriage between the Wahhabis and the House of Saud. Last year a prominent cleric in Buraida issued a religious edict against King Fahd, essentially saying the King had betrayed Islam and that deposing or killing him would be proper. A year ago riots against the royal family rocked the Kingdom.

Prince Abdullah, the day-to-day ruler of Saudi Arabia, has announced he will begin instituting democratic reforms that will allow men, but not women, to elect representatives to local councils. Those reforms may help, but there is a very strong element in the Kingdom that still believes in the traditional Islamic government: a strong caliph who governs under Islamic law and principles. Democracy does not have a long tradition in the Middle East. If imported from the West, democracy will meet resistance simply because it is from the West.

The House of Saud still retains substantial support and could survive this threat to its power, but it will not be an easy task. Proposed democratic reforms may please the progressives and the West, but displease the fundamentalists. It's also possible the Kingdom could end up in a protracted civil war. If the fundamentalists do take over, they may be smart enough to recognize that supporting terrorism will result in their downfall. But they could also follow the example of Osama bin Laden, starting a war with the West they believe Allah will help them win.

So what should the US do? For now, let the Saudis sort out their own problems, but keep a close eye on the Kingdom while quietly encouraging the Saudis to implement the reforms they've announced. The royal family knows it's fighting for its life and may be able to retain power. This may not result in the kind of democracy the West prefers and reforms may be incremental, but any attempt to force its hand could backfire, turning Saudi Arabia against us.

What we in the US should not do is underestimate the symbolic importance of Saudi Arabia to the Muslim world. While many Muslims in the Middle East do not like the Saudis nor feel any allegiance to the House of Saud, the seizure by "infidels" of the Islamic holy land, of the birthplace of Mohammed, of Mecca--towards which Muslims pray five times a day--could unite much of the Muslim world against the US. Osama bin Laden believed, rightly or wrongly, that it would. We may, alas, have to find out if he was right.

Paul C. Robbins, Ph.D.