China’s Western Expansion Strategy: Part Two

January 27, 2005

China’s primary engine of growth is domestically fueled by a number of issues, not the least of which is a cheap and abundant supply of labor.  When this is considered in the light of the endemic relative poverty of these same workers, the virtual lack of regulatory obstacles such as environmental, safety and land use – China in many ways resembles the America of the end of the 19^th century more than a modern nation.  Because China’s de facto government also thrives on mandarin-like corrupt patronage and a disregard for their common citizen, with its overlaying patina of communism, it shows another uncanny operative similarity to America’s late 19^th century commingled commercial and political landscape.  No wonder it is growing… but growth must be fed.

With a 9.5% rate of growth in 2004 and an overwhelmingly positive balance of trade China’s appetites are just beginning to rumble onto the international scene and not just in terms of raw materials.  Since they have so very, very far to go in their quest to reach a material standard of living even approaching that of the western world’s and with a monstrously large population, the bulk of which are impoverished by western standards, we can expect to see their per capita consumption rising dramatically. 

China’s long and hard experience with western commercial and political domination will not easily be forgotten as plans are laid to provide their own population with as much of their consumer needs as possible, all the better to escape the inevitable attempts to open their markets to foreign goods and a potential for being turned back into commercial captives.  The basis for the Opium Wars of the 18^th and 19^th centuries is not a forgotten issue in Chinese strategic thinking.

With the numbers and reliable economic forecasts before us it is difficult to escape the conclusion that China will be looking for new supplies of raw materials.   It is also difficult to ignore the clear intentions of the Chinese to be capable of protecting those sources and routes… their history, classical strategic thinking, ambitious naval research and development programs as well as the strategic alliances that have lead to crucial bases from which to guard them.

It is with this in mind that we turn to the recent Chinese and Canadian agreement that will provide modern mining technology and expertise.  While China does possess untapped mineral resources, the largest and relatively untapped source of mineral wealth is in Africa and the route to these materials is being steadily built.

Africa presents many difficult challenges for the West that in many ways are minimized for the Chinese.  Whether you consider the history of European colonialism in Africa and its post-World War Two aftermath or the western reluctance to be seen as acting harshly while pursuing commercial interests.

China’s leadership does not share the West’s scruples, especially when having to deal with Africa’s kleptocracies, nor is it likely that they will shrink from using force to replace too greedy or recalcitrant local leaders or to utilize tribal conflicts to attain their goals.  It does not take too hard an examination of Chinese domestic policies towards political opponents to extrapolate their potential in Africa.  Though the Chinese may not have as a good success rate when charging African families for the bullets they shoot members of their family with.

When considering territorial interests, it is instructive to take a brief look at China’s documented lack of restraint over the past half century when it comes to being militarily engaged in or conquering non-Chinese territories when it so suited.  Translating that history of action to its future African policies makes it likely that China may engage in similarly aggressive actions unless checked by consistent monitoring and achievable countermeasures.  With America likely to be engaged with Islamism for a decade or more it may devolve to the Europeans and the United Nations to provide that counterweight, however ineffectively.  But considering the current state of affairs at the UN regarding their scandalous behaviors with Iraq’s oil money, it does not stretch my imagination to envision China’s use of that institution’s moral shortcomings to pave the way for their policies… remembering that it does not require universal acceptance of China’s actions, only a sufficient muddying of the waters and a bit of gridlock to neuter an effective international response to allow them to come to fruition.

In the coming decade we will witness a serious growth of Chinese influence, if not direct control, in Continental Africa.

The establishment of busy, militarily protected trade routes between China, Africa and the Middle East also opens the door to extra-legal activities.  In the final part of this series on China to be published tomorrow, I will explore some of China’s role in enabling the trafficking of drugs in various parts of the world and how their western expansion will widen and expand that role. 

Read Part One of the Series Here

Tom Marzullo

© 2005, Tom Marzullo  All rights reserved.