January 12, 2005
While much is written about homeland security in the United States, little is known about how our northern neighbors are responding to their need to upgrade Canadian security.
The most significant threat to Canada today is posed by terrorists. As Canada continues to be an active player in the international struggle against terrorism, it will face increasing threats from transnational terrorist organizations. Globally, there is clearly an ongoing willingness by groups, individuals and states to use violence in support of political, religious, ideological and territorial agendas. Terrorist capabilities, modus operandi, and technology continue to evolve, creating increasing demands upon governments and security forces to ensure unrelenting vigilance, thorough threat analysis, and creative, cooperative responses. Safeguarding against the possibility of a terrorist attack occurring in, or originating from, Canada is their highest national security priority.
SUNNI EXTREMISTS
Current signs point to increased terrorist threats, particularly from Sunni Islamic extremists either directly aligned with or supporting of the ideology espoused by Al Qaeda. Osama Bin Laden has vowed to use Al Qaeda to strike the United States and its allies, including Canada.
Recent history has shown that few areas of the world are immune from the threat of Sunni Islamic extremism. Morocco, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have recently experienced attacks perpetrated by Sunni Islamic extremist groups. In addition, attempts to commit terrorist actions by such groups in the United Kingdom, France and Italy have been thwarted prior to taking place. Al Qaeda remains a potent global threat and more attacks are expected.
With the possible exception of the United States, there are more international terrorist organizations active in Canada than anywhere in the world. This situation can be attributed to Canada's proximity to the United States which currently is the principal target of terrorist groups operating internationally; and to the fact that Canada, a country built upon immigration, represents a microcosm of the world. It is therefore not surprising that the world's extremist elements are represented there, along with peace-loving citizens. Terrorist groups are present there whose origins lie in regional, ethnic and nationalist conflicts, including the Israeli-Palestinian one, as well as those in Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, the Punjab, Sri Lanka, Turkey and the former Yugoslavia.
By way of example, the following terrorist or front groups acting on their behalf have or had supporters in Canada: Hizballah and other Shiite Islamic terrorist organizations; Hamas; the Egyptian Al Jihad and various other Sunni Islamic extremist groups from across the Middle East and Maghreb; the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA), the Tamil Tigers (LTTE), the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and all the world's major Sikh terrorist groups. Some supporters of the international Islamic Jihad cause are also present in Canada, with a few of them possibly linked to Al Qaeda. Most terrorist activities in Canada are
Emerging terrorist threats and tactics have become more lethal and intelligence failures could have catastrophic results. Despite terrorists’ demonstrated preference for conventional explosive devices, the possibility that a weapon of mass destruction (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear [CBRN]) could be acquired and used by terrorist groups is now conceivable. Potential targets might include food sources and water supplies, heavily populated urban centers, and infrastructure critical to government and economic activity. Changing tactics, the potential use of chemical, biological, and radiological weapons, and threats to the infrastructure represent current realities in the fight against Al Qaeda and its adherents.
Successful enforcement initiatives, including arrests, removals from Canada and tracking terrorist financing, have reduced, but not eliminated, the threat posed by these groups. Responding to this menace will be the Canadian Security Intelligence Service's top priority and a substantial portion of the CSIS's resources will continue to be devoted to this area.
In addition to the danger posed by terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by a growing number of states poses a significant threat to international peace and stability, and therefore to Canada's own security. Canada is a signatory to several international agreements and treaties which are committed to prohibiting the development and transfer of such weapons.
Threats to Canada's national security continue to emanate from international criminal organizations that undermine the integrity of public and private institutions. Other threats emanate from countries that dedicate significant resources to espionage aimed at acquiring information to meet their military, political and economic intelligence requirements through covert means. Indeed, additional concerns are related to the foreign-influenced activities of governments seeking to manipulate expatriate communities in Canada.
As well, public and private sectors in countries around the world are becoming increasingly dependent on computer-based networks to conduct their business and provide services to the public. The threat spectrum associated with technological change is continually evolving, as are the tools and techniques being developed to attack and exploit computer-based networks. The potential for physical interference or cyberattacks against Canada's critical infrastructure has become a reality. A large segment of Canada's critical infrastructure is directly linked with similar infrastructures globally, particularly with the United States. The August 2003 blackout demonstrated the economic, physical, and psychological impacts resulting from a critical infrastructure failure. The effects of a terrorist attack on the critical infrastructure of Canada, or an associated country, could have profound repercussions.
Sunni Islamic extremism remains the primary focus of the CSIS Counter Terrorism program. Since the September 2001 attacks, the Sunni Islamic terrorists’ pattern of multiple coordinated bomb attacks against civilian targets has become tragically familiar. Attacks in Turkey and Morocco, during 2003, indicate that the threat has not diminished and is extending to hitherto untouched countries. The stated goal of many Sunni Islamic terrorist groups consists in eliminating Western influence and secular forms of government in Muslim countries, as well as establishing theocratic states following their interpretation of Islamic law. Al Qaeda is one such organization. Headed by Osama Bin Laden, it functions as an umbrella organization of Sunni Islamic terrorist groups, and has been described as a network. It has proven to be the most lethal terrorist entity and its brand of terrorism transcends national and organizational boundaries.
The war on terrorism will continue and undergo continuous transformation as both sides in this conflict adapt to new world realities. In the coming year, it is expected that Al Qaeda will continue to conduct sporadic, coordinated, multiple suicide bombing attacks, with the aim of inflicting sizable destruction and fatalities. Canada is not immune from acts of terrorism. As Canada continues to be an active player in the international struggle against terrorism, it will face increasing threats from transnational terrorist organizations. CSIS will hopefully continue working with partner agencies toward countering terrorist operations, disrupting terrorist financing networks in Canada, and denying refuge to members of terrorist entities.
Sources: Canadian Security Intelligence Service
Peter Warren, Journalist, CKNW, Vancouver, British Columbia
Stirling Faux, Journalist, CKNW
National Security Institute
